Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis
Mathew J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris (initially published in April 2009).

Drafters of the National Intelligence Council’s 2025 report forecast potential effects of the ongoing financial crisis on the economy, the role of the state, and the shape of world order. Will reduced U.S. political and market clout be one of the casualties? And link should be: More on
Multipolarity/Multilateralism and U.S. Hegemony>

Weak States and Global Threats: Fact or Fiction?
Stewart Patrick

Little evidence underpins existing sweeping assertions about the connection between weak or failing states and transnational threats such as terrorism, proliferation, or disease, even though policy is being implemented accordingly. What characteristics of state weakness are really associated with which dangers?
More on Foreign Aid and Economic Development>

The Folly of 'Asymmetric War'
Michael J. Mazarr (initially published Summer 2008)

Shifting U.S. defense policy to focus on asymmetric threats would distort defense priorities for years to come and trap U.S. armed forces in endless conflicts that military power cannot win. More on Terrorism>

The Security Implications of Climate Change
John Podesta and Peter Ogden (initially published Winter 2007-08)

Within the next 30 years, climate change is expected to cause destabilizing migration, massive food and water shortages, devastating natural disaster, and deadly disease outbreaks that will present serious security challenges not only to directly affected countries, but to the United States and the entire international community. More on Energy and Environment>

The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia
Mark Kramer (initially published in April 2009).

Recently declassified evidence undermines the contention that top-level assurances were provided to Gorbachev in 1990 not to enlarge NATO either eastward or to former Soviet states. No such assurances were ever given or sought. Transatlantic Relations >



Responses to North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Capitulation or Collective Action?
Scott Snyder (initially published Autumn 2007)

North Korea’s nuclear test may have unexpectedly catalyzed a paradigm shift, enhancing the potential effectiveness of the six-party process. The question now is whether such cohesion can continue as the impact of the nuclear test fades. More on the Koreas>

A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran
Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond (initially published Spring 2005)

In its nuclear negotiations with the rest of the world, Iran has been pursuing a strategy of “heads you lose, tails we win.” The United States needs a bold and fundamentally different strategy that would engage the Iranian regime and people on two tracks, allowing U.S. diplomats to pursue arms control and democratization at the same time. More on Iran>

The Merits of Dehyphenation: Explaining U.S. Success in Engaging India and Pakistan
Ashley J. Tellis (initially published in Autumn 2008)

Decoupling India and Pakistan in U.S. policy has been a dramatically successful example of the capacity to think strategically over the long-term and implement complex policies that require diplomatic adroitness and political agility. It should be retained, although refined, by the next administration. More on South Asia>